By Jonathan Carone

Did you know research shows that sports success at young ages has very little to do with success later on?

There was a study called “Quantifying the Extent to Which Junior Performance Predicts Senior Performance in Olympic Sports” where they asked the question, “To what extent does junior athletic performance predict senior athletic performance in he highest, open-age category” The sample used over 13,000 athletes across a range of sports in both national and international competition.  

Here’s what they found – and I’m quoting Dr. Paul Gamble in his summary of the study: 

“The major finding of the study was that the correlations between results in age-group junior competition and subsequent performance in the open-age category were shockingly low. The younger the age category, the less results in junior competition predicted later performance at the senior level. Junior performance has little if any predictive value and explains very little of the variance in performance once athletes reach the senior level.” 

So what can we take from this? 

Again, quoting Dr. Gamble: 

“A far more reliable indication of a young athlete’s long-term potential is their year-to-year progression throughout the junior years. Success in junior competition is fine as long as it can be sustained. Parents and coaches should urge moderation, emphasize quality rather than quantity, and seek to develop their range of skills and abilities rather than opting for narrowly focused practice and intensive preparation.”

In layman’s terms, this changes how we should think about training and leading young athletes. Here are three ways we need to reframe how we think about training our kids in sports:

1. Development beats domination.
   Early success often comes from being bigger, faster, or more physically mature than peers. That advantage disappears over time. Training should focus on movement quality, coordination, strength foundations, and overall athleticism, not squeezing short-term wins out of a growing body.
2. Consistency matters more than intensity.
   Progress that holds up year after year is a far better indicator of long-term potential than standout seasons at young ages. Smart training prioritizes sustainable workloads, proper recovery, and gradual progression so athletes can keep getting better instead of burning out or breaking down.
3. Love of the process is non-negotiable.
   The best training plan in the world fails if the athlete dreads showing up. When pressure replaces enjoyment, effort becomes forced and progress stalls. Athletes who enjoy training stay engaged longer, train with better intent, and ultimately reach higher ceilings.

The goal of youth training is not to create the best nine-year-old in the gym or a stand out middle schooler.

Instead, our goal is to build athletes who are still improving at 16, still competing at 18, and still enjoying movement well beyond that.

Train for the long game.

Potential only matters if the athlete is still around to reach it.

Jonathan Carone is the creator of “Healthy Sports Parents,” a social platform and podcast helping parents and caregivers lead their kids through youth sports without losing their minds. With a background in sports management, coaching, and student ministry, Jonathan brings 20 years of experience across every level of youth sports. Today, he’s focused on helping parents raise great humans, not just great athletes.